Labor wipe out in the Upper Hunter by-election

[pim]

The figures are uncertain at this stage but I won’t gild the lily or try to put some sort of face-saving gloss on it: NSW Labor has been shat on from a great height in that by-election. The seat had been line ball with the former National Party member resigning in disgrace fighting off allegations of sexual misconduct which prompted the by-election. Add to that the dodgy record of the National Party leader John Barilaro plus the fact that the NSW Labor leader Jodi McKay comes from Gloucester which is in the electorate plus the fact that by-elections tend to be bad news for incumbent governments, and the seat should have been Labor’s for the taking. It wasn’t. Gladys Berejiklian calls it a “miracle” which reminds me uncomfortably of Scott Morrison on election night 2019.

Traditionally NSW has been a Labor state with Labor as the default party of government but the corruption over many years with Obeid and MacDonald, plus the factional brawling have left a sickness that still afflicts the NSW branch. They’re a long way from government. And Jodi McKay is very quickly going to become Jodi Who?

It’s too early for post mortems but it appears that they’re still drinking the fossil fuel kool aid in that electorate. And if so that doesn’t bode well for federal Labor.

[matte]

Jodi McKay is a pinup girl for why gender quotas don't work. She is literally in that position for one reason only.

Whereas Gladys Berejiklian is the Premier entirely on her own merits. There has never been any discussion as to what genitalia she has.

Jodi McKay needs to go, but I wonder if her replacement will be another "quota"?

[pim]

Rubbish Matt. Do you really believe that this by election was about gender quotas? Try telling that to a voter in Muswellbrook, or Singleton.

[matte]

May 23, 2021 9:05:30 GMT 10 pim said:

Rubbish Matt. Do you really believe that this by election was about gender quotas? Try telling that to a voter in Muswellbrook, or Singleton.

No it wasn't.

But it was an election on policies. But the ALP is obsessed with certain identity policies and not the bread and butter issues.

People saw straight through their selection of the candidate from the mining union. They know he is pro-coal. But they also know the inner-city labor staffers are dead against it.

[ponto]

I think the election was won on what people in the Hunter wanted to hear...the continuance of coal and gas...and the Nats could pitch that as a policy, though it is a lie as coal and gas is going down the plug hole.

When speaking to the media Jody McKay was portraying herself as only talking negative attack which works for the coalition not so for Labor punters....people turn off with that approach.


Labors fortunes have fallen since the pro coal wing of the party thought it was good thing to knife him in the back as he was not going to follow their gaseous  agenda, that also was reflected in the by election the pro coal candidate looked like hypocrite.

Labor is divided on fossils it has destroyed itself with the they would do exactly the same as the coalition...to appease the mining Lobby.


All his mining power is creating less investment in the technology that is the future at the expense of the economic future.

Both parties have to pull their fingers out and get on with the job of seeing the end of fossils.

[Stellar]

You loony leftists never learn ...
From: The Age

A win in the Upper Hunter has seen the Coalition edge closer to majority government and bucked the well-trodden path of incumbents being punished in byelections.

At the same time, Labor’s primary vote went backwards from the 2019 general election and the party failed to win one booth in its leader’s home town of Gloucester.

The result for Labor is nothing short of disastrous. While some in the party will argue that it never stood a chance of winning a blue-ribbon Nationals seat, the reality is as few as one in five people voted for Labor.

To ever return to government, Labor must be picking up votes, not bleeding them.

Based on history, the Nationals should not have won - a miracle, according to Premier Gladys Berejiklian. Governments tend to be punished by voters in byelections and suffer huge swings against them, usually at least 10 per cent.

The once ultra-safe Upper Hunter seat had been slowly slipping away from the Nationals with former MP Michael Johnsen as its member. The seat was languishing on 2.6 per cent and ripe for the taking even before Johnsen was accused of raping a sex worker (which he denies) and sexting her from the floor of Parliament.

Yet, the tawdry details, which include a police investigation, were not enough to damage the Nationals’ brand in the Upper Hunter. Instead of voters turning to Labor, the protest votes split between One Nation and the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers. But not significantly.

The COVID crisis has not severely impacted the regions. Very few cases have been seen outside metropolitan areas. (The Upper Hunter had just three.) So the win was not necessarily an endorsement of the government’s handling of the pandemic.

Rather, the electorate was not angry. It did not feel the need to punish the government. And it certainly did not want to reward Labor. This should shake Labor to the core.

Conclusion: People loathe Labor, lol.

[matte]

Covid-19 played no part in this because unlike other states, Gladys has been a very light touch when it comes to Covid-19 restrictions. If Covid-19 did play a part, it would be a reward for not doing major lockdowns.

[ponto]

Labor offered nothing visionary...Coalition offered nothing visionary...people will stick with the nothing they know, which is coal fired power stations and mines, while business is going ahead with the new technology, as the new world business order is going renewables, neither side in politics wanting to do anything but wait until business does it.

Wrong people in both sides of the political parties.

The coalition are worse because most of these knuckleheads are hoping Trump will get in again, and the world will not deal with America if he does.

Jody McKay has been running her leadership on negativity,...works for the coalition punters not Labor voters.

Labor has to win the back its voter base by being more progressive democratic socialist rather than being seen as deceptive pseudo liberals with no vision.

[matte]

Trust me, Jodi McKay has only a few weeks left as opposition leader, at best. Could be a few days.

[pim]

No I don’t trust you Matt and the point about Jodi McKay very quickly becoming Jodi Who? was already made by me in the OP. Do try to keep up!

[matte]

Everyone now knows who Jodi is... useless. The last 24 hours has opened the eyes of all the citizens in New South Wales.

[pim]

Jodi Who?

[pim]

This comment from an smh reader says it all regarding the by-election commentary:

”Miracle win in seat held by Nationals for 93 years”.

The bar on miracles is incredibly low.

“Everyone in the LNP celebrating 33% of first preferences.”

That is right. Two thirds of voters preferred someone else. But will accept the least worst option which is what our 2pp throws up.

And yes the ALP with 22% of votes needs a new leader.

So first sentence "bitter internal battle" for the leadership. Why will it be bitter? Is every job application or bid for promotion "bitter"?

Can we stop with the cliches especially those with no relevance to the topic?

[pim]

And on the issue of fossil fuel v renewables in the Upper Hunter, this comment from a Guardian reader could be insightful ...

The new 'gas' (actually diesel) Kurri Kurri power station is very odd. First, it's not coal-fired. One would think that a new coal-fired power station is what Hunter Valley voters want.

Second, it actually increases the potential penetration of renewables. Why?

There are two kinds of storage needed to allow renewables to power 100% of the grid. The first is overnight storage, to fill the gap left by solar. In a mixed grid of wind, solar and other zero-carbon generation, the CSIRO has calculated that about 4-6 hours of storage will be needed when we reach 90% renewable penetration of the grid. At current penetration, less is of course needed, and by the time we need 4-6 hours, battery pack prices will have fallen another 60-70%. So, perfectly feasible.

The second is seasonal storage, to cover periods in the year when there is no wind and no solar--for example, a cloudy, still, cold day in mid-winter. And legacy gas plants will be ideal for that, whereas battery storage will be too expensive. We will in time be able to manufacture cheap synthetic methane from green hydrogen, using the Sabatier process, which will be zero carbon. In the meantime, using natural gas for 10% of electricity generation, and renewables for the remaining 90%, would still cut emissions by 95%.

Building a new peaking gas plant will facilitate the increase in renewables in the grid, because it will reduce the risk that we go short of power on those rare days when there is little or no solar and little or no wind through the entire NEM. They will be rare, because the wind is always blowing somewhere in the NEM--if not Gippsland, then South Australia; if not Victoria, then Queensland. The same applies to solar. But there will still be a few days a year when that won't be enough. And for that, for now, we will need gas.

And, surprise: the government is building just such a gas plant, and subsidising some others in the private sector.

Is the plant just a sop to the swivel-eyed denialists in the Coalition? Even though its effect is to allow 90% renewables? Surely the government is perfectly well aware of the implications for renewables of increasing gas penetration in the grid. After all, this is how the US is slashing emissions from its grid: higher renewables percentages backed by gas.

Is Kurri Kurri preparing a shift to more significant climate goals by the LNP? I suspect it is. Morrison is a past master at the rapid sideways shoe shuffle. The blind acceptance by the usual suspects on the Right of a new gas plant as somehow saving coal suggests his shuffle might work. Which is very interesting indeed.

[ponto]

They are fooling the people coal has a future, one can see it in their eyes knowing they are lying, and are hoping for countries to have a slow transition from coal power which isn't happening the transition is happening rapidly.

The Nationals are also lying to the people that a coal fired power station is going to be built in Queensland and they have funding for it, they may get the silver shovels out and turn the first clod of grass knowing that's as far as it gets.


Labor is making the mistake of falling into the coal trap by trying appease everyone....that is not working, just say there is a transition going to happen as coal has no future, then give examples of other countries that is finding new jobs for miners in the renewable industry such as in Europe and Germany.

[pim]

A couple of points on context:

1. 1’m 100% certain that Scott Morrison’s thinking this year on every issue, from the vaccine rollout to borders to climate change, to emissions reduction, to fossil fuels v renewables, to quarantine, to the budget bottom line (which now is more like a bottomless pit) is governed by the federal election which has to be held within the next 12 months

2. I’m also certain that Scott Morrison’s game plan within that context is “give me the rest of the year to wedge Labor on all of the above and get the election out of the way. Preferably before Christmas. Then in 2022 we’ll review everything”. What that means, for border closures, is:

a) before the election it’s Australia and North Korea as The Two Hermit Kingdoms

b) after the election it’s “Open Sesame” on the borders.

3. Scott Morrison is crab walking away from coal but wedging Labor on emissions reduction while he’s doing it.

[Stellar]

May 24, 2021 6:46:03 GMT 10 pim said:

This comment from an smh reader says it all regarding the by-election commentary:

”Miracle win in seat held by Nationals for 93 years”.

The bar on miracles is incredibly low.

“Everyone in the LNP celebrating 33% of first preferences.”

That is right. Two thirds of voters preferred someone else. But will accept the least worst option which is what our 2pp throws up.

And yes the ALP with 22% of votes needs a new leader.

So first sentence "bitter internal battle" for the leadership. Why will it be bitter? Is every job application or bid for promotion "bitter"?

Can we stop with the cliches especially those with no relevance to the topic?

Gees!  Talk about sour grapes, lol.  

[pim]

I guess you're right. Let them have their sour grapes. They've earned them!

[ponto]

I am predicting that as climate change is in everyone's rooms the party that assures peopl ethat it is the most serious about burning issue will be the future party leaders....right now its all lies deceit and smirking mirrors from both sides, and of course the coalition are masters at it..

[pim]

[matte]

A devastating blow to the NSW Labor Party.

They said it was going to be neck and neck, which it definitely wasn't.

[pim]

A shit sandwich to be sure. Labor is good at eating its shit sandwiches. So it's another four years of opposition for Labor. Maybe that's what it'll take for NSW Labor to get its act together. But what do you reckon is the real story here, Matt? Labor pains?

I'm here in SA and out of the loop of NSW politics and I see this by election was caused by a sex scandal in the Berejiklian government. Now I see there's another by election on the horizon, possibly in Kiama involving another sex scandal in the Berejiklian government. Another sex scandal? What sort of outfit is Gladys running!

[Stellar]

You could well ask!  Let me just say that Gladys doesn't need these MEN in her party.  What's wrong with men??? But I don't know, maybe she inherited them - sort of they came with the territory.  And while Gladys has had her own personal problem with another male in her party, the vast majority of electors are on her side.  We forgave her for that kerfuffle with whoever he was.  Gladys is well loved by the constituents.  We know she's always done her best and her best is quite impressive.  She's been on our tv screens every single night during the pandemic and lockdown.  She's definitely married to the job and she gets the job done.  What more could we ask?

And besides - she's a Manly girl.  Born in Manly Hospital.  No wonder she was off to a flying start.  
 

[ponto]

Now this bloke talks sense .... being negative is not how a social democratic party acts, labor has tried teh party right way now is time to get rid if the bums, that look like party infiltrators to undermine the party..


NSW Labor MP Chris Minns quits frontbench over 'dirt dossier'

Mark Saunokonoko 4 hrs ago



© AAP Image/Bianca De Marchi NSW Labor leadership contender Chris Minns



NSW Labor MP Chris Minns has quit the shadow cabinet after reports a "dirt dossier" on him began circulating in the party.





Mr Minns made the announcement on Twitter this morning, claiming his position was now "untenable".



In the statement, the shadow transport minister said he was "very disappointed" a dirt dossier had been distributed by the Deputy Leader of the Labor Party's office.



READ MORE: New generation of boarding houses across Sydney are unrecognisable



"In the last 24 hours I have not received any communication or explanation from the Leader, or the Deputy Leader as to how or why this was done," Mr Minns said.



"The public wants a contest of ideas and a vision to improve the lives of working families, not negative politics."



The staff member who released the dossier was fired last night.



Addressing media outside his home this morning, Mr Minns claimed Labor's focus on "negative politics" had been turned on him.



"I think the (NSW) Labor Party over the last two years has been too negative. I don't think negative politics works," he said.



"This kind of negative politics isn't working against the government, why would it work against our own side?"





Video: ‘I am the leader of the NSW Labor Party’: McKay denies reports she will resign (Sky News Australia)



Mr Minns, who will continue to serve as the Member for Kogarah, has been touted as a possible replacement for NSW Labor leader Jodi McKay.



Yesterday Ms McKay declared she would not be stepping down from her position after the party's crushing Upper Hunter by-election defeat at the weekend.



Mr Minns becomes the second senior Labor MP to step down from the shadow cabinet in just two days, after Walt Secord quit yesterday.



Mr Minns said Ms McKay had not contacted him about the dirt dossier or his decision to resign.



Speaking with Ben Fordham on 2GB, Ms McKay said the staff member's conduct in releasing the Minns document was "completely and utterly inappropriate".



omny.fm/shows/ben-fordham-full-show/jodi-mckay-holds-firm-despite-calls-for-her-resign/embed?style=cover

"He did it on his own volition," Ms McKay said.



"I had no idea about this until I was asked about this in a media conference yesterday, which took me completely by surprise."



Ms McKay claimed she "had no idea" the document existed or the details it contained.

Mr Minns will remain on the party's backbench.

[ponto]

NSW Labor followed the Joel Fitzgibbon playbook in the Hunter and look what happened


After months of calling for Labor to reject credible climate change policy, Labor head office handed Joel Fitzgibbon everything he wanted at last Saturday’s Upper Hunter byelection. There was a former miner candidate, an embrace of all things coal, a patchy honesty about the economic changes coming the Hunter’s way and some old-fashioned dog whistling about climate change-obsessed inner-city elites.


When the Labor vote crashed, Fitzgibbon was straight back on the horse, threatening to leave the party that has sustained him for a quarter of a century and arguing the only problem was that the campaign lacked conviction.


For cooler heads, it was empirical proof that NSW Labor’s decision to abandon its leadership on climate change is a dead end in regional seats, and likely electoral poison in the cities and suburbs.


Last week, polling by News Corp showed that the Upper Hunter electorate was split down the middle on whether the region’s future lies in protecting coal jobs or in building a plan for transition. There is no city versus the regions in this, people in places like the Upper Hunter aren’t homogenous and none are fools. Labor reducing its approach to “pro coal or no coal” offers nothing.


On one of the big questions for the region, how the power of government would be used to intervene to protect communities from inevitable economic change, Labor had very little to say, the cupboard was bare. Leadership, an orderly plan, funding, training and some well-crafted industry policies are needed to ensure the Hunter prospers deep into the 21st century. Labor may need to use some muscles that have calcified in these years of narrow pro-market policy, but it’s time to flex them again. This is core business and there was no excuse for Labor being bereft of this for the byelection. Throughout the campaign, John Barilaro did better than Labor at articulating support for coal workers alongside acknowledgment that change was coming and the region needed to prepare.


NSW Labor’s approach did not deliver votes in a key coal seat, but equally importantly continues to undermine Labor’s chances of winning support across the Australian community.


The ANU’s Australian Electoral Study showed that climate change was one of Labor’s greatest vote attractors at the 2019 federal election. This was confirmed by the Emerson-Weatherill review of the party’s federal election performance. Across the country, voters swung to Labor on climate but away on other policy issues. Blaming a principled approach to climate change for a myriad of other campaign and candidate problems is self defeating.


Labor believes in climate action. We are a party of reform that recognises the science of climate change and is committed to ensure communities like the Hunter are not left behind. This is not the easy path. The easy path is taken by the Liberals to our right and the Greens to our left. Because we believe in climate action, we must act like it. To think the millions of Australians who worry about climate change will continue to support us just because of past leadership is dangerous. We risk looking very old-fashioned and devoid of belief.


Anthony Albanese and his front bench are building a credible platform – committing to deliver credible emission reduction targets, backing coal workers, and designing jobs of the future in regions that need it. And supporting locally led initiatives like the Hunter Jobs Alliance.

The Hunter Jobs Alliance was founded after the 2019 federal election by the Labor Environment Action Network and the Australian Manufacturing Workers Union. It is a coalition of nine unions and four local community environment groups in the Hunter that aims to turn down the heat in the divisive culture wars, instead finding spaces for workers, community, business and government to come together to deal with the shared challenge of creating jobs now and in the future.


One of the clearest lessons from this nascent effort to build deep community engagement, is how disconnected the political parties are from communities and things that matter in people’s lives. On Saturday night voters expressed this with 48 per cent of them fleeing the major parties. It strikes me that this may actually be the issue some politicians have misdiagnosed as an attachment to a 19th century energy source. Labor once was, and can be again, a party deeply connected to its communities and trusted by them to manage change. Hunter Jobs Alliance aspires to rebuild that kind of community cohesion and connection, bringing interests together and being a vociferous voice for the community interest in a system that often focuses elsewhere.


NSW Labor has provided the perfect test of the electoral saliency of a simple pro coal agenda, that pretends climate change is not a pressing priority and ignores the rapid shifts in the global energy market. It fails. Labor must lead on climate change and work harder to deliver a sophisticated transition policy and foster trust within impacted communities.


Felicity Wade

Sydney Morning Herald, May 26

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