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Post by matt on Feb 19, 2013 17:08:06 GMT 10
Lots of people say she has lost, and that it is impossible for her to win the next election. However, the same was said during the 2001 election after the GST was introduced by Howard, and Paul Keating during the 1993 election.
Is Juliar as good as dead, or with enough emergency surgery could she come out of her dire situation to win the election, even by just 1 or 2 seats? What does she need to do?
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Post by chequeredflaggg on Feb 19, 2013 17:37:35 GMT 10
Dont ask if Gillard and Labor can win, ask rather, if WE the country, can still lose.
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Post by chequeredflaggg on Feb 19, 2013 17:39:11 GMT 10
notice that now that votes are more important than getting legislation through the Houses, the craven honeys have cut the Greens loose and commenced a war of words with them.
Funny how it didnt happen 2 years back, isnt it?
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Post by Deleted on Feb 19, 2013 18:47:54 GMT 10
The odds are not good, then I wouldn't underestimate Gillard to make ground, given Abbott's polices that yet to be costed, and how he intends to implement those polices.
Given that the Australian economy is in a strong position and the global weak economies are improving in confidence, Abbott will not have justification to sack tens of thousands of public services and greatly reduce services, taking into in account the billions he took out of the health system when he was minster for health.
Reducing wages and taxing isn't a remedy for a surplus it is simply a cheap fix at the expense of the public.
Climate change should also be a big factor on peoples minds, a party that takes it real or a party that thinks its bullshit.
Also the lets build dam's Gina ideology will prove to be a pipe dream as implementing such things evokes environmental damage and not too mention the question of disease and pathogens with crops in areas that have no such things, that and animal pest increases....there will be more failures than wins.
And no doubt Abbott will introduce unbridled mining where already there is major environmental damage caused by mining activity with rivers and water ways, that will cause a great cost to the people too fix, unless miners pay a environmental bond, and to be sure Labor will fix the mining tax to be a revenue raising exercise as it should be.
Another thing to consider is immigration policies.....while both parties are beholding to the big end of town with the false economic belief a bigger population means more growth and shopping centres, assimilation factors have to be taken into account with numbers and increases and this is where Abbott will not factor and increase immigration so that it is far easier for asylum seeking country shoppers to fly in.
Whether people think climate change is bullshit and nothing to worry about facts are it is real and happening now, and with rising seas Australia will have to think seriously about climate induced migration....sustainable levels of migration is a issue that cannot be ignored and would be foolish to ignore by any Australian government.
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Post by garfield on Feb 19, 2013 19:06:34 GMT 10
Abbott may sack tens of thousands of public servants thats true but even if he does we won't even notice that they have gone ;D And when Gillards great global warming abatement scheme comes to an end also well that was only worth a tenth of a degree over one hundred years anyway so nobody will notice the difference on that one either ;D
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Post by Deleted on Feb 19, 2013 19:35:02 GMT 10
Dont ask if Gillard and Labor can win, ask rather, if WE the country, can still lose. Tony Abbott PM. If you don't think that that is a loss for the country, then you really are moronic
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Post by Salem on Feb 19, 2013 19:39:05 GMT 10
Well Freddy, if Labor agree with you and feel as strongly as you, they'll reinstate Rudd.
If they don't, it tells me they are not concerned with what an Abbott govt would do to Australia.
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Post by garfield on Feb 19, 2013 19:41:31 GMT 10
Tony Abbott PM. If you don't think that that is a loss for the country, then you really are moronic A loss for the country?, for who?, boat people scammers?, union scammers, pink batt scammers?, school hall scammers?, I would ask you to be more specific but quite frankly the less of your idiotic gibberish I have to wade through the better.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 19, 2013 19:41:37 GMT 10
Who's Freddy ?
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Post by garfield on Feb 19, 2013 19:42:28 GMT 10
Caskur
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Post by Deleted on Feb 19, 2013 19:49:23 GMT 10
Tony Abbott PM. If you don't think that that is a loss for the country, then you really are moronic A loss for the country?, for who?, boat people scammers?, union scammers, pink batt scammers?, school hall scammers?, I would ask you to be more specific but quite frankly the less of your idiotic gibberish I have to wade through the better. Speaking of idiotic gibbers, hows it going Garfy ? Obviously not concerned how Abbott will cut your DSP, eh ? So now we know why your on the DSP in any case. So just to get back on topic. Abbotts Policies, what little of them we know, are unfunded and recessionary; his promises cannot be met; and even in opposition, we have had to send diplomatic missions to our most important neighbors to allay fears that he in an absolute fruitcake, over his brain farts over foreign policy. Oh and if you think that measures such as "School Halls" was wasteful, then perhaps you should speak to a Construction Worker ( the BER saved that industry from recession) or a Teacher, or a Parent who sends their child to a State-School and now has a decent Library, or Music School, or Art Centre. Oh thats right, as far as you're concerned, the Majority of Children don't deserve those facilities in their schools, do they ? And you wonder why you're a laughing stock.
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Post by Salem on Feb 19, 2013 19:52:59 GMT 10
I'll be straight I've never really understood the 'Ruddshipping' (worshipping?) people have going on for Rudd. I never got the appeal of him. I thought he was strange-looking and lacking in charisma. But, I'm not big fan of Abbott either. I'm a Hockey or Turnbull gal. But for some reason, the public love Rudd, and have, if you will, 'never gotten over him'. I think there is a lot of romantacism about him and how he was knifed and removed from the public as their Prime Minister. And normally I wouldn't suggest being poll-driven when it comes to leaders. But an article today says that Rudd could gain Labor an extra 5 or 8 seats, leading Labor to a slim majority. Not a hung parliament. Govt in Labor's own right. I will look for the article as soon as I hit post on this, some of you have probably seen it though.
The thing is, the people have not stopped loving Rudd or wanting him back. This Rudd thing is not over. It won't die. It won't be over, I don't think, until Rudd is back. (Then a year later, the public will remember why they started to hate him, but at least they would have slayed Abbott by then, possibly getting rid of him as Oppn Leader)
Speaking from a neutral point of view I think Labor need to bite the bullet and give the public what they want It won't go away. They were foolish to think it would in 2010, and they would be foolish to think the public will now. Apart from the carbon tax, the public will always associate her with Rudd's downfall. She will never be looked on favourably and Labor are fooling themselves if they ever think the public will get over what she did to Rudd. 2 years on, the public are pining for Rudd more than ever.
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Post by garfield on Feb 19, 2013 19:53:49 GMT 10
Whats this about me and a DSP?, not sure where that rumour came from, just misinformation I guess, what person in their right mind votes Liberal when they are on Centrelink? As for the rest of your post ... mop needed in post #10 urgent, someone has lost control of their bowels.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 19, 2013 19:56:05 GMT 10
Whats this about me and a DSP?, not sure where that rumour came from, just misinformation I guess, what person in their right mind votes Liberal when they are on Centrelink? As for the rest of your post ... mop needed in post #10 urgent, someone has lost control of their bowels. In other words, you're too Dopey to address the issues that I highlighted.
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Post by garfield on Feb 19, 2013 19:56:35 GMT 10
I'll be straight I've never really understood the 'Ruddshipping' (worshipping?) people have going on for Rudd. I never got the appeal of him. I thought he was strange-looking and lacking in charisma. But, I'm not big fan of Abbott either. I'm a Hockey or Turnbull gal. But for some reason, the public love Rudd, and have, if you will, 'never gotten over him'. I think there is a lot of romantacism about him and how he was knifed and removed from the public as their Prime Minister. And normally I wouldn't suggest being poll-driven when it comes to leaders. But an article today says that Rudd could gain Labor an extra 5 or 8 seats, leading Labor to a slim majority. Not a hung parliament. Govt in Labor's own right. I will look for the article as soon as I hit post on this, some of you have probably seen it though. The thing is, the people have not stopped loving Rudd or wanting him back. This Rudd thing is not over. It won't die. It won't be over, I don't think, until Rudd is back. (Then a year later, the public will remember why they started to hate him, but at least they would have slayed Abbott by then, possibly getting rid of him as Oppn Leader) Speaking from a neutral point of view I think Labor need to bite the bullet and give the public what they want It won't go away. They were foolish to think it would in 2010, and they would be foolish to think the public will now. Apart from the carbon tax, the public will always associate her with Rudd's downfall. She will never be looked on favourably and Labor are fooling themselves if they ever think the public will get over what she did to Rudd. 2 years on, the public are pining for Rudd more than ever. Reinstating Rudd would halve the current gap, not enough to win but at least saving face.
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Post by garfield on Feb 19, 2013 19:58:10 GMT 10
In other words, you're too Dopey to address the issues that I highlighted. Quite frankly the only issue you really raised is your mental health issue, and I'm really not qualified to comment on that.
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Post by Salem on Feb 19, 2013 20:00:27 GMT 10
Unlikely return of Rudd would create a calculated contest IS IT possible to calculate the effect of a Rudd return on Labor's vote? Julia Gillard's supporters hope not, preferring to think the former PM's promise not to challenge her before the election - nor allow himself to be drafted for the top job - has finally put leadership speculation to bed. If we were talking about any other politician, it probably would. But we're talking about one Kevin Michael Rudd - a man who clearly hates to leave any job unfinished and for whom the word wallflower means nothing. With apologies to Shakespeare, many a voter would today say Kevin doth protest too much, methinks. Like Queen Gertrude, I suspect the former PM has overcooked his denials. The sceptic in me can't help but wonder why Rudd has returned to the Sunrise television program, or tweeted about grandfatherly virtues, or taken a swing at Treasurer Wayne Swan's mining tax. Even his postponement of a potentially scene-stealing Adelaide street walk will be read as a calculated leadership move. I have no doubt that Rudd is genuine when he says he will not force a challenge, but I can't believe he'd resist being drafted if the leadership were offered on a platter. While there's virtually no chance of that, Gillard supporters must still be worried by the weekend's Galaxy poll that suggested Labor's last card - women's hitherto dislike of Tony Abbott - has turned out to be a joker. Galaxy found women voters were now evenly divided in terms of whom they trusted, Gillard or Abbott. It seems that Abbott's gender "problem" has finally been laid to rest, or at least close to it. Gillard's wavering supporters must now be second guessing the mathematics of a Rudd revival and weighing up whether the Queensland Kid will help them retain their marginal seats. But picking an election winner seven months out is risky enough, even when the opinion polls have been as consistently stark as those dividing Labor and the Coalition. Throw in the unknown variable of potential leadership challenges and it's nigh on impossible. But that won't stop us having a bit of fun with the numbers and I've looked to previous pre-election leadership speculation for some guidance. In early 1995, for example, when John Howard was about to topple the hapless Alexander Downer, Howard - not yet opposition leader - was polling 49 per cent as preferred PM to the incumbent Paul Keating's 43 per cent, a six-point margin. On top of this was the Coalition's nine-point lead over Labor, 47 to 38 per cent. Together, that equalled a 15-point Coalition advantage over Labor, or 7.5 points if averaged over the two criteria. Given the Coalition under Howard gained 28 seats at its easy 1996 election victory, we can conclude that each point of the Howard advantage was worth an extra 3.7 seats for the Liberal and National parties. Let's apply that matrix to 2013. The most recent polling from late last year indicates that Rudd leads Abbott as preferred PM by a whopping 19 points. But this is tempered by the fact the Government's primary vote trails the Opposition's by an equally staggering 16 points, 32 to 48 per cent. Together, that pegs the Rudd advantage at just three net points, or a mean of just 1.5 per cent over two criteria. Multiply 1.5 by 3.7 seats and We can surmise a Rudd-led Labor could make a net gain of five or six seats, bringing the Government's total to 77 or 78 - a tiny but certain majority[/b].[/size] Will this happen? Probably not. But the speculation is fun. And, as Howard said, politics is all about arithmetic. Dr Paul Williams is a Griffith University School of Humanities senior lecturer. www.couriermail.com.au/news/opinion/unlikely-return-of-rudd-would-create-a-calculated-contest/story-e6frerc6-1226580608583
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Post by garfield on Feb 19, 2013 20:07:22 GMT 10
Rudd and Gillard and their battle to lead the hive, reminds of one of those wild life docos where the two strongest insects fly up and sting the fuckin shit out of each until one dies, one or the other will end up leading but they'll still be a bug ;D
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Post by Salem on Feb 19, 2013 20:09:08 GMT 10
Oh god, the imagery in my head....
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Post by Deleted on Feb 19, 2013 20:35:20 GMT 10
In other words, you're too Dopey to address the issues that I highlighted. Quite frankly the only issue you really raised is your mental health issue, and I'm really not qualified to comment on that. Surely, you should have some insight on what is ailing you. obviously, the issues that I raised were too complex for you to understand, either.
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Post by garfield on Feb 19, 2013 20:37:25 GMT 10
I'm fine but I'm thinking you have spent your whole life in close proximity to a lead smelter.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 19, 2013 20:38:45 GMT 10
I'm fine but I'm thinking you have spent your whole life in close proximity to a lead smelter. and again, you just don't have the intelligence to address the issues that I raised.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 20, 2013 6:00:39 GMT 10
Rudd won't challenge, it is all media hype......what should happen is that Gil lard step down and Shorten take over and lead Labor into defeat, as it was his creation. Effectively removes that Right factional power and then Rudd can make a comeback, he is popular because he is a excellent orator, unlike Gillard..."we get the job done"...yawn.. Still Gillard will give it a good go...and defeat is more dignified, and the loss not so great...
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Post by caskur on Feb 20, 2013 6:04:28 GMT 10
Caskur Freddy barracks for Richmond.. I barrack for the West Coat Weagles.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 21, 2013 11:57:54 GMT 10
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