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Post by Gort on Oct 7, 2021 10:19:47 GMT 10
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Post by pim on Oct 10, 2021 5:57:19 GMT 10
Morrison’s tiptoe through the climate minefield shouldn’t lead him to a COPoutGeorge Megalogenis October 9, 2021 www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/morrison-s-tiptoe-through-the-climate-minefield-shouldn-t-lead-him-to-a-copout-20211008-p58ycn.htmlThere is an increasing, but still cautious optimism on the Liberal side of Scott Morrison’s government that Australia won’t embarrass itself at next month’s United Nations climate conference in Glasgow. A commitment to net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 – the bare minimum that our “forever” allies in Washington and London expect of us – appears to be within reach despite the sabre-rattling from a handful of National Party ministers and backbenchers. There is even a chance that Australia will offer a more ambitious interim target to 2030. The expectations for a historic policy shift, after 12 querulous years of climate obstruction by the Coalition in opposition and in government, is built on a simple political calculation. The Liberal Party has more seats at risk in the cities from continued inaction than the National Party has in the regions from net zero. Accounts differ on the seats in danger. One senior Liberal familiar with the internal polling nominates up to six – the inner metropolitan electorates of Chisholm in Melbourne, Brisbane, Wentworth and North Sydney in the Prime Minister’s home city, as well as the outer-metropolitan electorate of Boothby in Adelaide, and Robertson on the NSW Central Coast.
The threats are asymmetrical. Labor is well placed in areas such as Chisholm, where the Liberal margin is ultra-thin. But in Wentworth and North Sydney, which require swings of almost 10 per cent to change hands, it is the independents who pose the greatest challenge.
The Liberal Party is also vulnerable in as many as three seats in Perth for reasons other than climate change, and can’t take Tasmania for granted, where it picked up two seats from Labor at the last election. The government holds a majority of one in a Parliament of 151, with 76 seats, to Labor’s 69 and six others.Morrison has understood the need to bring the government back to the centre on climate change since the post-mortem of the 2019 election. But he could indulge a do-nothing compromise with the climate sceptics in the National Party while Donald Trump remained in the White House. That soft option disappeared on January 20 this year when Joe Biden used his first day as President to sign an executive order for the United States to rejoin the Paris Climate Accord. The clock has been ticking ever since, and lately it has assumed the menace of a time bomb. The question, always, with Morrison is why does he leave the big decisions to the last possible moment? On climate change, it is clear he wanted to avoid the issue until after the election. Morrison’s original plan was to go to polls before Glasgow. But that window closed with the bungling of the vaccine rollout, and was bolted shut by Sydney’s wave of the coronavirus which has forced 60 per cent of the national population into an extended lockdown. On the other hand, Barnaby Joyce’s return to the National Party leadership in late June has been less of a barrier to net zero than first feared. Joyce continues to play a constructive role in the negotiations, according to Liberal sources. Morrison’s caution is nonetheless understandable. He has a back catalogue of his own scepticism to contend with. Remember, he took a lump of coal into Federal Parliament as treasurer in February 2017, a stunt that happened to coincide with Trump’s first days in office? And he claimed the Liberal leadership in August the following year after a party-room revolt over Malcolm Turnbull’s national energy guarantee. At the 2019 election, Morrison claimed Labor’s electric car policy would “end the weekend”. If, and when, he announces the government’s conversion to net zero, Morrison will need to explain to his voters on the centre right who want action, and to those on the hard right who still see global heating as hoax, that his new position isn’t just a political fix to help him secure another term in office. Surely, the best way to demonstrate he is serious is to take his policy to Glasgow? But the PM tells us he is reluctant to go to the meeting himself. He says his first responsibility is to sell the policy “to Australians, not to people overseas, at overseas conferences”. This doesn’t make much diplomatic sense. If we are finally putting the past dozen years of leadership chaos and policy gridlock behind us, why wouldn’t Morrison want to receive the applause on the international stage? What better way to sell his policy than to be pictured with world leaders taking climate change seriously? There are two theories doing the rounds in Canberra. One, from sources sympathetic to Morrison, is that he doesn’t want to spook the Nationals by putting his attendance ahead of their agreement. The other is that Morrison is more concerned about the G20 meeting in Rome at the end of this month, which precedes the so-called COP26 in Glasgow. On this theory, Morrison is wary of the multiple cold shoulders awaiting him at the G20. French President Emmanuel Macron still won’t take his call. President Biden won’t want to be embracing Morrison while he is still repairing his own relationship with Macron. As the Axios website reported this week: “Biden and his aides have acknowledged they were mistaken to leave it to the Australians to tell the French they were killing their submarine deal and negotiating with the Americans and Brits instead.” And Chinese President Xi Jinping has not spoken to Morrison in more than a year. Has there been a more awkward moment for an Australian leader? Here’s the irony though. Before the French subs row, Morrison revelled in the backslaps from fellow leaders for Australia’s COVID-19 response. Let’s assume Morrison can thread every needle between now and polling day – net zero, a safe reopening for the economy, and a re-election platform that preserves a majority for his government. That would give him a mandate for climate change reform. But what is to stop him adopting a passive position after the election, especially if his margin remains tight? A narrow re-election won’t resolve the split between the cities and regions on climate change; it would merely delay the reckoning. Morrison has taken the slow and low roads to net zero. He has treated climate change as an internal argument, presuming the public is happy to accept its resolution without needing the detail. He continues to bend facts to claim Australia is ahead of the pack when the world is, in fact, waiting for us to stop whingeing. At no point has he taken the Australian people into his confidence. Until he does, he won’t have genuine authority to undertake what will be our biggest reform since the Hawke-Keating government opened the economy in the 1980s.
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Post by ponto on Oct 10, 2021 6:47:48 GMT 10
It was a known ScoMo and the coalition would have to do an about face on climate change action, when the world is sitting in a canoe paddling upstream ScoMo cannot be in that canoe paddling the wrong way shouting this way, nor will suffice it is God's will for humans to burn the planet in Armageddon, doomsday denial is not something to leave the children's future.
Bottom line is can the the climate burn coal deniers trusted to play a role in climate action..?..No obviously not...obstruction will still be the narrative behind closed doors, for the obdurate people will not believe..
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Post by pim on Oct 16, 2021 22:32:13 GMT 10
Dan Ilic was just getting started with the Times Square billboard and says there’s more to comethenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2021/10/15/dan-ilic-climate-change-billboards/What started as a campaign to erect a single billboard near the COP26 summit in Glasgow next month has snowballed into a climate-themed takeover of Times Square in New York City. And thanks to the enormous number of donations, there’s more to come. The crowdfunding campaign has so far raised more than $150,000, and now Dan Ilic is eyeing billboards in key electorates around Australia. “For over a decade, this government has been delaying, destroying, dismantling, destructing any kind of climate action,” Ilic told The New Daily. “And right now, in October 2021, they all of a sudden want a f—ing ribbon to say they’re going to be good climate actors.” The billboards in New York City and Glasgow are intended to simultaneously shame the Australian government into doing more to combat climate change, as well as raise global awareness about Australia’s environmental footprint. One of the projections on the Times Square billboard (which cost $16,000 for a 10-minute slot) was created by a major, anonymous donor. In plain English, it apologised to the rest of the world for the Australian government’s climate change track record. “I think that’s a real nice sentiment, and that is the whole meaning of why we did the campaign,” Ilic said. “It’s about telling the world that we, as Australian people, are apologising to the world because our government is such a bad actor.” Meanwhile, in Horsham Vic.The next stage is to plaster similar billboards in key electorates around Australia. So far there’s been a billboard on the Great Ocean Road in Torquay, and another one in the Victorian Nationals stronghold of Horsham. Meanwhile, in Torquay, Vic.Ilic has even booked a billboard in Armadale (sic! He means Armidale), “so hopefully Barnaby [Joyce] can drive past it every day”. He’s also planned a billboard in the Melbourne suburb of Hawthorn, which falls within the Treasurer’s own electorate of Kooyong. The comedian was coy on the design, but said it would be “a nudge and a wink to Josh Frydenberg”. The plan is to keep calling out the Australian government’s climate change record in the lead up to COP26, and then until the next federal election. “Having a government held captive by a fossil fuel industry is not unique to Australia,” he said. “So the battles that we are facing in Australia are being replicated all around the world.” As for the original billboard location in Glasgow, it’s been scrapped in favour of an even more prominent spot, right across the river from the SEC Centre where Scott Morrison will meet with world leaders for COP26.
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Post by Gort on Oct 17, 2021 12:45:21 GMT 10
Meanwhile, in NSW Labor ... Could be interesting. A marginal seat I believe.
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Post by nataliesalat on Oct 18, 2021 12:55:30 GMT 10
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Post by pim on Oct 18, 2021 13:53:49 GMT 10
Well I stand up when weeing into my toilet bowl so I’ll argue in mitigation that I’m according my loo its due respect. Mind you I also have to sit quite regularly so I guess it could argue that I’m giving it the arse …
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Post by ponto on Oct 18, 2021 14:11:13 GMT 10
Obvious just who are the unhinged when for people like nataliesalat aka Gortnuts..??... protection of Aboriginal heritage is bad as it obstructs a very small percent of mining activity.
It used to be raw sewerage released into waterways and oceans wasn't such a bad thing until the realisation it was spreading disease and harming the environment...environmental personhood is a good thing for protecting the environment just as treating raw sewerage is good for the environment and health.
Desperate stuff to counter Pim's post that highlights the fact the coalition have been dragging the chain on climate change action for well over a decade its come in and attack Labor and the Greens policies....conclude Natnuts is Gortnuts in drag..
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Post by Gort on Oct 18, 2021 14:14:23 GMT 10
aka Gortnuts..??
Guess again ...
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Post by nataliesalat on Oct 18, 2021 18:38:45 GMT 10
The last time my party tried to implement socialist policies such as nationalisation we were out of office for 23 years. Because we let Brown and Bandt into influence, we’ve been out this time for almost a decade. Towards the Left lies defeat.
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Post by pim on Oct 18, 2021 18:44:56 GMT 10
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Post by nataliesalat on Oct 20, 2021 20:22:21 GMT 10
I sense you are trying to impress me. There really is no need.
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Post by matte on Oct 20, 2021 20:44:55 GMT 10
Scott Morrison has lost it as he has lost his base. All of this woke virtue signalling he'll do in Scotland will be the final nail in the coffin.
I wonder if he'll get on his knees and kiss the globalist ring that'll be on Greta Thunberg's finger? Why the hell is she at the summit anyway? What science degree does she have? She doesn't even have a high school education in science, she quit!
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Post by nataliesalat on Oct 20, 2021 21:28:16 GMT 10
Now that she’s a legal adult I’m sure Scott Morrison and or Boris Johnson would happily have Greta chained to the stone of Stockholm’s town square clad in only lacy bra and fishnet stockings.
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Post by Gort on Oct 20, 2021 22:23:52 GMT 10
Now that she’s a legal adult I’m sure Scott Morrison and or Boris Johnson would happily have Greta chained to the stone of Stockholm’s town square clad in only lacy bra and fishnet stockings.
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Post by nataliesalat on Oct 20, 2021 22:26:54 GMT 10
Hey I wouldn’t put Anything past ScoMo and BoJo…
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Post by ponto on Oct 21, 2021 0:07:10 GMT 10
Look how denigrating they get at youth who are angry at having their future burnt into apocalypse by fossil burning arseholes who couldn't stop their addiction because of greed.
For the pro coal people youth should just get a smack around the head and told to accept their future Armageddon as biblical prophecy.
Fucking wankers.
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Post by Gort on Oct 21, 2021 15:39:00 GMT 10
Someone please tell the Greens they're deamin' If anything, this will be more incentive to vote Liberal! Greens eyeing off four Melbourne seats in hopes of hung parliamentBy Annika Smethurst October 21, 2021 — 3.15pm Four Victorian electorates will be key to the Greens’ plan to push Labor into a power-sharing arrangement if the next federal election delivers a hung parliament, as the party opts for a more moderate path to take on the major parties. The Greens’ leader Adam Bandt and Labor leader Anthony Albanese.CREDIT:ALEX ELLINGHAUSEN The Greens will run candidates in all federal lower house seats. Leader Adam Bandt has revealed the 10 electorates the party is targeting, including the four Melbourne seats of Wills, Kooyong, Macnamara and Higgins. Following the latest boundary changes in Western Australia and Victoria, the Greens commissioned new modelling by the Parliamentary Library which shows that Labor would need a two-party preferred swing of 3.28 per cent on election day to beat the Coalition and govern in its own right after the election. But the Greens are banking on a uniform swing closer to three per cent which would likely deliver a minority government with Labor potentially forced into a power-sharing arrangement with the Greens and other crossbenchers. In contrast to the 2019 poll where the Greens failed to boost their numbers in the lower house, Mr Bandt, the member for the seat of Melbourne, said the party had already started campaigning and would focus its efforts on areas where “the Greens vote is strong, and where a small shift can get us over the line”. “We’ve identified a list of 10 seats ...we have already begun campaigning in those seats, preselected candidates and began a really strong Melbourne-style people-powered campaign...and early indications from many of those seats where we’ve been campaigning for a while are good.” As part of their power-sharing plan, the Greens will pour resources into the Labor-held seat of Wills in Melbourne’s inner northwest which takes in the suburbs of Brunswick, Coburg and Pascoe Vale where the first-time candidate Sarah Jefford, a surrogacy lawyer, will be the party’s candidate. Ms Jefford will face a tough fight against Labor’s Peter Khalil following a strong swing towards him in the 2019 election, but would make history as the first woman elected to represent the seat which was held by former prime minister Bob Hawke. The Greens also have their sights on three adjoining seats south of the Yarra River including the Labor-held electorate of Macnamara which includes Port Melbourne, South Melbourne, Middle Park and St Kilda. Two-time Greens candidate Steph Hodgins-May will take on Labor’s Josh Burns who also managed to increase Labor’s margin at the last election. The Greens candidate Steph Hodgins-May, photographed in Elwood.CREDIT:WAYNE TAYLOR The Greens are also banking on the possibility of knocking out Treasurer Josh Frydenberg in his blue-ribbon seat of Kooyong and Katie Allen in the neighbouring seat of Higgins where the party received strong swings in 2019. As part of the party's strategy, the Greens will use the return of Barnaby Joyce and his recent objections to the 2050 net-zero targets try and convince more progressive Liberal voters to reject the Coalition based on the Nationals leader, not their local MP. "The rest of the world, and the rest of Australia, is now catching up with what the Greens have been saying for some time," Mr Bandt said. "We now have US President Joe Biden and UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson calling for the kind of climate action that only the Greens are calling for in Australia." "I didn't think that I'd find myself in this job saying nice things about UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson, but here we are." Greens leader Adam Bandt believes Barnaby Joyce’s stance on 2050 net-zero targets could benefit his party.CREDIT:DOMINIC LORRIMER Mr Bandt said the campaigns would highlight that "no matter what your Liberal MP says locally and how powerful they are, when they go to Canberra they do what Barnaby Joyce says". The Greens used a similar tactic at the last election which was held just months after the more moderate Malcolm Turnbull was challenged by conservative Peter Dutton and ultimately lost the prime ministership to Scott Morrison. While Mr Frydenberg held his seat comfortably after preferences, the Coalition suffered a significant swing. While the Greens will try to woo more progressive voters in Labor-held seats, in Liberal electorates they will target more affluent and traditionally conservative voters who have enough cash and power not to be troubled by the hip-pocket issues like jobs, taxation and cost of living concerns, freeing them up to embrace social concerns. "People in Liberal seats should know, they can vote greens and get a safe pair of hands," Mr Bandt said. "They'll be strong, independent voices ... who will fight for climate action, but understand the values of the people in the area that they're seeking to represent." As part of the party's pitch to attract more mainstream voters, leader Adam Bandt rejected the idea his party was only a voice for environmental and other social issues, and instead emphasised the need to grow the economy and avoid tax rises. "To make the transition to the green economy and to fund the services that were calling for, you don't need to put up taxes on everyday people," Mr Bandt said. "You can do it by stopping some of the handouts and wasted money that's going to areas that don't need it" "I think it is a far more economically sensible use of money to put that to put those billions of dollars into science and research and education and innovation to grow the clean economy, rather than using public money to give to coal and gas corporations." www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/greens-eyeing-off-four-melbourne-seats-in-hopes-of-hung-parliament-20211020-p591ps.html#comments
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Post by nataliesalat on Oct 21, 2021 19:14:07 GMT 10
Bandt pretends he’s not an old style tax and spend but he is…
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Post by matte on Oct 24, 2021 21:07:47 GMT 10
The fortnightly Newspoll is in and I don't believe it is accurate. Something has been off about the results for the last 6 months. / /
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Post by Gort on Oct 24, 2021 22:45:07 GMT 10
Wouldn't it be hilarious if Labor thought they had it in the bag again only to lose the election next year? I think I would laugh so much my sides would ache.
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Post by matte on Oct 25, 2021 16:27:17 GMT 10
Wouldn't it be hilarious if Labor thought they had it in the bag again only to lose the election next year? I think I would laugh so much my sides would ache. I think that may actually happen. Albo is getting cocky at the moment.
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Post by Gort on Oct 26, 2021 9:49:56 GMT 10
Meanwhile the polls are close but ScoMo is way ahead as Preferred PM ... Coalition support weakened by Nationals’ climate policy disagreementBy David Crowe October 26, 2021 — 8.00am A swing against the Nationals has weakened support for the federal government during a high-stakes argument over climate policy, cutting the Coalition’s primary vote from 39 to 37 per cent. Labor has increased its primary vote from 31 to 34 per cent over the past month while the Greens have lifted their support from 10 to 11 per cent, highlighting a shift among voters that throws the government on the defensive. Prime Minister Scott Morrison has kept his edge over Labor leader Anthony Albanese as preferred prime minister, with a lead of 44 to 26 per cent, but the Coalition has paid a political price for an extended dispute among the Nationals over whether to commit to net zero emissions by 2050. The exclusive results in the Resolve Political Monitor, conducted for The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age by research company Resolve Strategic, show the swing against the government was wholly due to a cut in support for the Nationals from 5 to 3 per cent. The Liberals increased their primary vote from 34 to 35 per cent but this was not enough to make up for the hit to the Nationals, leading to a fall in the overall Coalition vote from 39 to 37 per cent after rounding to the nearest whole number. Resolve director Jim Reed said the result took the Coalition vote to its lowest point since the surveys began in April and represented a swing to Labor since the election. “The last month sees a flow of votes from the Coalition to Labor and the Greens, but this is all coming from the Nationals,” he said. “The Liberals have actually gained a point, but the Nationals have lost 40 percent of their vote share in just a few weeks. When you’re starting from a modest base, that’s statistically significant.” Mr Reed said the result was the strongest for Labor to date but cautioned that the two-party result after preferences was still “too close to call” after considering the margin of error. Because the Resolve Political Monitor gives respondents the option of making unprompted remarks about parties and leaders, the findings on primary vote came with repeated signs that climate change was an issue for many in their decisions. “Everything about the vote movement, the changes in the ratings for the leaders and party brands and the comments submitted by voters is telling us that the Nationals’ loss is about their prevarication on the 2050 net zero decision,” Mr Reed said. “Most of Australia supports it, most Queenslanders support it, most regional and rural voters support it, and most Nationals’ voters support it.” “The majority of Nationals voters made up their minds on this a while ago and they’re making their way to the next pub, and it looks like a bunch of them have got fed up waiting for those in the Nationals who are still having a punch-up in the last pub’s car park.” The Resolve Political Monitor was conducted from October 21 to 24 and asked 1603 voters about their views in online questions put in a random order to avoid a “donkey vote” with the results. It has a maximum margin of error of 2.5 per cent. The shift in popular support came during a period of federal debate on climate policy, the vaccine rollout, the end of the ban on Australians travelling overseas, the move by NSW to end hotel quarantine, the likely powers of a new commonwealth integrity commission and a political storm over hidden donations to former attorney-general Christian Porter. Voters expressed their views during the time Mr Morrison was waiting for Mr Joyce and his party room to decide their stance on the climate target but the responses were received before the Nationals announced support for net zero shortly before 6pm on Sunday. Support for Pauline Hanson’s One Nation fell from 4 to 3 per cent over the month while support for independent candidates was unchanged at 9 per cent and support for others slipped from 7 to 5 per cent. This meant 28 per cent of voters favoured a choice outside the Coalition, Labor and the Greens, a slight fall from 30 per cent the previous month. The results reveal signs that more voters are thinking of swinging from one choice to another, with 32 per cent describing themselves as “uncommitted” with their support. Because the Resolve Political Monitor asks voters to nominate their primary votes in the same way they would write ‘1’ on the ballot papers for the lower house at an election, there is no undecided category in the results, a key difference with some other surveys. It also assigns vote to the Liberals and Nationals depending on electorate, including in Queensland according to which LNP party contested the seat at the last election. Mr Morrison retained a strong lead as preferred prime minister, favoured by 44 per cent of voters compared to 26 per cent for Labor leader Anthony Albanese, with 30 per cent undecided. The gap between the two has narrowed to 18 percentage points in recent months from 24 points in May. Asked to rate Mr Morrison’s performance, 47 per cent said it was good while 43 per cent considered it poor. After rounding, this produced a positive rating of 4 percentage points after rounding. Asked to rate Mr Albanese, 31 per cent considered his performance to be good while 41 per cent said it was poor, producing a net negative rating of 10 percentage points. Mr Albanese improved on this measure compared to last month because the number of voters who said he was doing a poor job fell from 47 to 41 per cent. In a sign the Prime Minister has a higher profile that can produce an advantage on personal measures, only 10 per cent of voters were undecided about Mr Morrison’s performance while 29 per cent were undecided on Mr Albanese. www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/coalition-support-weakened-by-nationals-climate-policy-disagreement-20211025-p592wt.html
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Post by pim on Oct 27, 2021 15:52:46 GMT 10
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Post by pim on Oct 28, 2021 6:57:21 GMT 10
PM’s net zero plan driven by slogans and seats, not conversion or convictionNiki Savva October 28, 2021 www.smh.com.au/national/pm-s-net-zero-plan-driven-by-slogans-and-seats-not-conversion-or-conviction-20211027-p593iz.htmlNiki Savva is an award-winning political commentator and author. She was also a staffer to former prime minister John Howard and former treasurer Peter Costello Scott Morrison has been rehearsing his lines for weeks, reassuring voters he is the only one they can trust to safely and surely construct a plan to deliver net zero emissions by 2050. The Prime Minister has been refining his new mantra, skipping the usual devotions of climate change adherents affirming belief in climate change because he has artfully switched the debate from morality and environment to the economy, and branding his “plan” as the uniquely “Australian Way”. Actually, it was the uniquely Morrison Way. So many slogans, so little substance. A headline searching for a story. There was a sense that once again the heavy lifting has been left to the states, that it was not born of conversion or conviction but from Morrison’s infinite pragmatism driven by numbers, particularly in inner-urban Liberal seats, once considered impregnable now under threat from independents and Labor. A potent line in those seats is that the Coalition’s policy has been dictated by Barnaby Joyce, who negotiated a deal between Morrison and the Nationals then repudiated him by opposing it in his party room. Yet here they are in a fragile coalition crumbling internally, under pressure externally, studiously avoiding appearing together, advocating for a target neither really, truly believes in to be reached by recycled amorphous somethings. It should provide incentive for Anthony Albanese and his environment spokesman Chris Bowen to fashion a more credible policy, with a higher target for 2030. There is every sign they will as soon as Glasgow ends. Morrison says he won’t change his 2030 target because it would break an election promise. He could have taken a new promise to the next election but can’t because as the whole world now knows, the Nationals won’t let him. The Coalition is advocating for a policy that neither party truly believes in.Besides, that would risk compromising his attacks against Labor. Then again a full-blooded scare campaign is also risky. It would raise doubts about his sincerity in places he hopes his net zero target will work and probably wouldn’t rally outraged conservatives. Progressives ridicule his plan because it basically tells people they can keep doing what they are doing and technology will fix the problem while conservatives condemn him for selling out. Wedgie anyone? Polling undertaken less than two weeks ago for the Climate 200 Group headed by Simon Holmes à Court in key Victorian electorates, provided exclusively to this column, mirrors that done in inner-urban Sydney seats. It helps explain why Morrison pressed for the target and why a scare campaign would be a gamble. It also confirms the Resolve poll in The Age and Sydney Morning Herald showing the government has paid a price for infighting over climate. It surveyed Kooyong, held by the Treasurer and potential future leader Josh Frydenberg, Flinders held by the Health Minister, Greg Hunt and Goldstein, held by newly minted frontbencher and longer-term leadership aspirant Tim Wilson. It did not survey Higgins – once the domain of John Gorton, Peter Costello and Kelly O’Dwyer –which Katie Allen holds with a margin of 3.7 per cent, figuring it would go Labor or Greens. Polling shows that Barnaby Joyce is deeply unpopular with women voters.In fact, a poll conducted by Labor in Higgins last week showed it was within reach. It showed the Liberal vote had dropped 6 per cent to 41, Labor’s went up one to 26, the Greens went down four to 19, Clive Palmer’s party was at five and independents around four. After preference distribution it was 50-50. More people were dissatisfied with the Morrison government’s handling of the pandemic (56 per cent) than satisfied (30 per cent). And the Joyce factor is huge with 63 per cent of voters in Higgins holding an unfavorable opinion of him. His net negative rating among women is at a staggering minus 53 per cent. The result poses a dilemma for Labor in Victoria. Should it swing resources there, concentrate on winning Chisholm (which Liberals agree is vulnerable) or on holding Dunkley and Corangamite (which Labor concedes are vulnerable), or aim for Casey, following Speaker Tony Smith’s announcement he is retiring? In each seat polled by Climate 200, climate change was listed as the number one issue of concern to voters, well ahead of management of the pandemic and of the economy. Without a name attached, an independent candidate could expect to garner from 7.5 per cent to 12.5 per cent of the vote. Voters were then asked how they would vote if there was an independent candidate of the calibre of Warringah’s Zali Steggall or Indi’s Helen Haines. In Flinders, where doubt remains that Hunt will recontest, the expected vote jumped to 24.3 per cent, in Goldstein 28.5 per cent and in Kooyong 26.3 per cent. Liberal voting intention dropped markedly once respondents were asked about voting for an independent like Steggall/Haines. In Flinders it fell by 8.7 per cent to 28 per cent, in Goldstein by 9.6 per cent to 28.5 and in Kooyong, by 8.5 per cent to 25.9 per cent. So an “independent like Steggall/Haines” is behind, but competitive in Flinders, level pegging in Goldstein and ahead in Kooyong. The trick is to find suitable candidates. In North Sydney in mid-September when businesswoman Kylea Tink declared she would run as an independent, she had a list of 300 supporters. She now has more than 1000, more than enough to man booths on election day. It’s enough to make the major parties go green. Literally. One Labor frontbencher reckons if that happened in his seat, he would be accused of branch stacking. A candidate will be announced soon to run against energy minister Angus Taylor in Hume and Holmes à Court has been asked to consider running in Kooyong. He remains reluctant. While there are a couple of other possibilities, the Kooyong Independents Group will cast the net wider this weekend by advertising for candidates. That is how Steggall was found for Warringah. The money keeps rolling in. In 10 weeks the group has raised $3.2 million from 4000 donors. At the last election they raised $500,000. Holmes à Court says it’s driven by dissatisfaction with the government over the issues the independents will campaign on – climate change, integrity and the treatment and safety of women – and confidently predicts Morrison’s “plan” is so bad it will make things worse for the government, not better.
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